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Apogee Consulting Inc

It Costs Too Much

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Recently I was approached by a colleague who wanted some advice. His company’s rate structure wasn’t working for them and management wanted some options. We discussed some notions, but I told him that I had said mostly everything I had to say on the topic in my 5-article series addressing indirect rate structures. Those articles were written six years ago, but (to me) they still ring true today.

(That’s the good thing about this blog: when I have a thought, it gets documented and I can refer back to it. The work is done once and once only.)

A client is in the process of rejiggering its indirect costs because it believes it is losing too many competitions because its prices are too high. In the government contracting environment, prices are almost always linked to costs—so if you want to cut your prices you have to cut your costs. Too often, companies think they can solve their cost problems by taking a hard look at their indirect cost allocations. But most of us know that really doesn’t work. If you want to cut costs you have to cut costs; there’s really no substitute. Companies should look at their cost allocation structures from time to time and evaluate whether or not those structures are meeting their needs; but playing games with cost allocations is really a tacit admission that management doesn’t want to make any hard decisions about cost-cutting.

It may be the case that costs simply cannot be reduced any further. Personnel are paid what it takes to protect them from the poachers across the street. Facilities costs are what they are. Management costs are what management wants them to be. If that’s the case, then what do you do?

You gotta look elsewhere.

If you want your program costs to come down but you can’t find any costs to cut within your factory, then you’ve got to get into your program supply chain and start “helping” your suppliers to cut their costs.

Another client told us about a recent epiphany they’d had. For years—perhaps decades—they had been going to the same supplier for certain critical program services. That supplier performed well: on-time and on-budget and always high-quality output that could be relied upon. Year after year, they kept going back to that same reliable supplier. At a certain point, they realized they were never going to compete the work. It was too critical to program success and this supplier was going to get it done. Period. So now the company had a “single source” situation (which is different from a “sole source” situation) and it was going to have to justify why the supplier’s price was fair and reasonable. (It was perhaps true at this point that the company didn’t actually care whether the supplier’s price was fair and reasonable; because using that supplier reduced so much program risk.) To make a long story shorter, the government customer didn’t like the company’s cost/price analyses of its supplier’s proposed pricing, and the company got told to conduct a competition. After much kvetching, the company agreed. And suddenly their long-time reliable supplier’s price dropped. Significantly.

The company kept using that supplier, but now the costs had dropped. They were happy. The customer was happy. And the supplier was happy to keep the work.

We were reminded of the foregoing anecdote by recent news articles indicating that Lockheed Martin’s government customer(s) think the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter costs too much.

This is not really news, is it? It’s not really new news. We’ve been hearing complaints about the F-35 program budget since Day One. For example, in late 2009, we reported here that a Pentagon Joint Estimating Team (JET) analysis showed that “the program ‘will require billions of dollars more than planned, and more time.’” We also reported, in that same article, that program critics had asserted—

Those findings address only the known problems; there's a huge iceberg floating just under the surface. With F-35 flight testing barely three percent complete, new problems - and new costs - are sure to emerge. Worse, only 17 percent of the aircraft's characteristics will be validated by flight testing by the time the Pentagon has signed contracts for more than 500 aircraft. Operational squadron pilots will have the thrill of discovering the remaining problems, in training or in combat. No one should be surprised if the final F-35 total program unit cost reaches $200 million per aircraft after all the fixes are paid for.

Remember, those quotes were made back in 2009 – nine years ago. But just a few months later (February 2010) we were back with another article on the F-35, quoting another source’s concerns about F-35 operating costs. We quoted –

… over the lifetime of the fleet - the carrier-based and STOVL JSF versions will cost the Navy 40 per cent more, in total operating costs, than the F/A-18C/Ds and AV-8Bs that they replace. … This is despite a smaller fleet and fewer flight hours: the new aircraft are expected to cost more than 60 per cent more to fly per hour than their predecessors.

In May, 2011, we reported that the F-35 program’s life-cycle costs were expected to exceed $1 trillion. At that time, certain Senators weren’t pleased with that number, and they were not shy about expressing their displeasure. The Pentagon promised to focus on the price problem, and appointed Shay Assad to lead the efforts.

In March, 2012, we reported that F-35 unit costs were now $159 million (according to Lawrence Korb of the Center for American Progress). In that same article, we quoted an AW&ST story that included the following quote: “Higher acquisition costs also drive company growth, as do higher-than-predicted operating costs, particularly this century as more maintenance work was outsourced to contractors. The failure of the Global Hawk Block 30, whose operating costs were higher than the aging, manned U-2, is the exception rather than the rule: Most operators accept the overruns and reduce capability in other areas. …” We also quoted, from another source: “Because of the way sustainment costs are calculated, affordability is still a problem, and that might mean that the number of aircraft bought in the near term might be further truncated or that flight training hours are curtailed, [a senior defense official] said. The numbers are expected to fluctuate during the next five years.”

Finally, in a recent (2018) article, we noted continued problems in negotiating F-35 contract pricing. Lockheed Martin was not reducing its unit costs sufficiently quickly, according to government officials.

In other words, the history of the F-35 program is a history of cost challenges, with many critics complaining about program costs and aircraft unit costs and aircraft operating sustainment costs.

(That’s another good thing about this blog: when I need to do research I can start with searching my own articles. Some of the links are broken but the juicy quotes remain.)

Which brings us to today, April 2018—and this Bloomberg news story, with the catchy title “Lockheed Gets Edict to Cut F-35's $1.1 Trillion Support Bill.” The story referenced the recently released Pentagon Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) for the program, which stated that Lockheed Martin “must find ways to reduce the Pentagon’s current $1.1 trillion estimate to own and operate the F-35 jet.” The story noted that the $1.1 trillion estimate is a 2015 estimate. It's three years old. The story noted—

The report acknowledges that under current forecasts, ‘the projected F-35 sustainment outlays are too costly’ and ‘given planned fleet growth, future U.S. service operations and support budgets will be strained.’ Bloomberg reported last week that the U.S. Air Force may have to cut its F-35 purchases by one-third, or about 590 jets, if it can’t find ways to reduce operations and support costs by as much as 38 percent over a decade.

In a somewhat unusual move, the SAR also told Lockheed Martin how to cut its program costs. Bloomberg reported: “According to the acquisition report, Lockheed should also ‘optimize priorities across the supply chain for spare and new production parts, and enable the exchange of necessary data rights’ to the U.S. military of software currently owned by the company.

Which is interesting, right? Somehow Lockheed Martin owning its intellectual property (IP) increases program costs, according to the DoD. Hmmm.

But the other recommendation (to look to the supply chain for cost reductions) is perhaps more in line with reality. After all, Raytheon used supply chain management to help improve its position in the SDB-II competition, as we noted in this article. We quoted “[Raytheon picked] suppliers early and then work[ed] directly with them to improve productivity at every step.” So yes, if LockMart could reduce its supplier costs, then it could share those savings with its government customer(s).

And speaking of government customer(s), those who remember our article on the lack of collaboration being exhibited between LockMart and its government Program Office negotiators may not be shocked to see this news story, in which DefenseNews reported that “The Defense Department plans to dissolve the F-35 Joint Program Office and revert to a more traditional management structure where the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps all run their own program offices …” The story notes that “While the changes could make it easier for the services to have oversight over their respective F-35 variants, the eventual dissolution of the JPO could make it more difficult for international customers to interface with the program.”

Obviously, I’m not privy to the details that led to this decision. However, I note that if each service is separately managing its own variant as a separate program, then costs will be more accurately reported. For example, aircraft unit costs for the USAF’s F35-A program (which are 20-25% lower than the other variants) should not be impacted by the higher aircraft unit costs for the Navy and Marine Corps F35-B/C variants. Similarly, operating sustainment costs will be more granular as well.

I’d like to wrap this one up by going back to the beginning. Everybody, it seems, is under pressure to cut costs. Cutting costs is hard work and requires making hard decisions. Those companies that can successfully make the hard choices tend to see their efforts rewarded; whereas companies that cannot navigate their way tend to experience problems. In today’s defense acquisition environment, the path to success tends to be found in the program supply chain and not within the four walls of the prime contractor’s integration area. Investing time and resources in the supply chain tends to produce a positive return.

 

 

The Fight For (and Against) Innovation

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We were happy to recently report that Palantir, along with new ally Raytheon, had been awarded a $876 million contract to replace the troubled DCGS-A intelligence data-management system. That article concluded on a hopeful note, since we thought the DoD might finally be learning to accept innovative products from non-traditional defense contractors.

Yet this week’s news indicates that Palantir’s path is not a rosy as we first thought. It’s problems with the entrenched “triangle” (generally thought to be comprised of bureaucrats, lobbyists, and Congress) persist. We are seeing reports, without detail, that General Dynamics Missions Systems, a disappointed bidder in the DCGS-A competition, has filed a bid protest. And so it goes …

Meanwhile, at the WIFCON site, Don (“Acquisition”) Mansfield just posted a blog article regarding recent DFARS regulatory changes that, potentially, offer reduced barriers to entry for small businesses and other non-traditional defense contractors. We wrote about those rule changes in this article. We didn’t dwell on the same aspect that Don noted in his article. Don noted that a “non-traditional defense contractor” has a very specific definition (“an entity that is not currently performing and has not performed any contract or subcontract for DoD that is subject to full coverage under the cost accounting standards … for at least the 1-year period preceding the solicitation of sources by DoD for the procurement ….”). Don noted that, as all small business are exempt from CAS, that definition makes every small business a non-traditional defense contractor, and thus eligible under DFARS 212.102(a)(iii) for Part 12 commercial item procurement procedures, regardless of whether the small business’ goods/services have been formally determined to be commercial items.

We further note that same DFARS final rule added a new solicitation provision (252.215-7013) that clearly states that supplies and/or services from non-traditional defense contractors “may be treated as commercial items” but “the decision to apply commercial item procedures to the procurement … does not mean the supplies or services are commercial.”

But that’s all dependent on contracting officer discretion, isn’t it? The rules are expressly intended to be permissive and to provide flexibility, but the rule is not prescriptive. There’s nothing that requires an individual contracting officer to use them, even if doing so would speed up acquisitions and (perhaps) entice more innovative companies to enter the defense marketplace.

And what about traditional defense contractors? What about the companies that have figured out how to overcome the barriers to entry and how to win defense contract award competitions? How are they reacting to the regulatory changes?

Let’s look at Boeing for one example of a reaction. First, in 2015 Boeing created a new, centralized, business unit to focus solely on developmental programs—i.e., contracts that had been awarded to the company to develop weapon systems and to get them ready for future production. At the time, Boeing’s Defense Unit President said, “We expect our customers to see step-function improvements in affordability and schedule performance as we more effectively apply engineering expertise, development program best practices, and program management and integration from across Boeing to our most important development activities.”

At the time, reports stated that six programs were going to be part of the new unit’s portfolio, including the KC-46A aerial tanker, the new Air Force One, the CST-100 spacecraft, the NASA Space Launch System rocket, Boeing’s 502 small satellite effort, and defense-related work on Boeing’s 777X commercial jetliner.

That same report put the Boeing move into a broader context, writing—

Boeing’s reorganization is part of a growing trend within defense companies to operate their businesses more commercially. With fewer defense dollars on the horizon, the Pentagon has pressured companies to cut production and development costs. To remain competitive, firms have been looking at a myriad of ways to lower the cost of all types weapons ranging from fighter jets to warships. This has included everything from consolidating facilities, automating production and shrinking the workforce.

Yet a mere three years later, Boeing decided to kill that centralized development program business unit and, instead, create two new Defense divisions—“Commercial Derivatives” and “Missile and Weapons Systems.” The Commercial Derivatives until will focus on the KC-46 tanker, the new Air Force One, and the P-8 submarine hunter—all programs built on modifications to Boeing’s commercial airliners.

What happened in the intervening three years? Not sure. But one thing that didn’t happen was the KC-46A program. Reports indicate that the program continues to struggle. Deliveries once scheduled for 2017 are now being pushed out to late 2018, which some consider to be an overly optimistic date. The business unit created to focus on development program management evidently failed to turn-around one of its largest programs. And the USAF is not pleased.

Meanwhile, smaller companies – perhaps more agile and responsive – continue to look for opportunities to break into the defense marketplace. Congress continues to push the Pentagon to contract with those smaller companies. The rules change, albeit reluctantly, to help contracting offices do just that.

But the decision regarding whether to do so—and how best to do so—rests with the individual contracting officer. Historically, contracting officers who take risks tend to receive criticism from their legal teams, their contracting chiefs, the IG and the GAO. If the new rules are going to work as intended, then the contracting culture needs to change.

Time will tell whether the DoD (and DCMA) culture will support its contracting officers when they decide to exercise the discretion permitted by the Congressionally driven rules.

 

 

Frank Kendall Schools Acquisition Reformers

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Acquisition reform has been a hot topic almost since the founding of the republic some 240 years ago. It was an issue during World War I and it was an issue again during World War II, and has been an almost constant issue since 1960’s. Politicians campaign on the promise that they can balance the Federal budget through reductions in unspecified “fraud, waste, and abuse”—and study after study is funded in order to figure out where the acquisition system can be streamlined in order to achieve those promised savings.

It doesn’t work, though, does it?

The status remains quo, in terms of acquisition durations and cost growth and system failures. The early problems with the F/A-18 program are similar to the early problems of the F-35 program. The shipbuilding overruns of the 1980’s are similar to the shipbuilding overruns of the 2010’s. And let’s not even get started on satellite programs.

Even with the best intentions and the strongest backing, there’s not much new in acquisition reform. The most that can be said about current Administration efforts is that they are characterized by a return to previous theories, as we recently pointed out.

In its nine years of existence, this little blog has documented some of those acquisition system reform efforts. It has also documented recommendations for system reform that were not adopted, or fundamentally changed, or even sabotaged. The Palantir story has become the poster child for the notion that entrenched program offices fight innovation that will challenge the status quo, aided and abetted by the contractors who spent millions of dollars to win their contracts and who don’t want to see their ROI threatened by newcomers.

Right now the Section 809 Panel is discussing acquisition reform efforts. Its first report contained many recommendations for reform, most (if not all) of which we heartily endorsed. The second report will be coming soon. But so what? All recommendations need to go through a gauntlet of attacks from the bureaucracy, contractors (with lobbyists), and political give-and-take. The chance that any of the Section 809 Panel’s recommendations will be implemented is small; the probability that all of them will be implemented is effectively zero.

Similarly, there is another group tasked with studying how to reduce DFARS rules. Any reform recommendations will need to survive challenges from entrenched interests within DoD—including (for example) DCAA and DPAP.

And speaking of similar efforts, we already devoted an article to the Defense Innovation Board, an entity comprised of 15 innovators and academics, sponsored by the Secretary of Defense, intended to “enhance the department’s culture, organization, and processes.” In eighteen months of activity, the DIB made 12 official recommendations that generated zero action. Reports said that DoD officials were “reviewing” the recommendations. As the Board itself notes (on its website): “The DIB provides specific recommendations, but does not implement change itself. It can however help identify and work with ‘sponsors’ inside DoD to take action, creating a sustainable foundation on which to generate successful ideas in the long run.” Meanwhile, the DIB continues to meet; it’s most recent public meeting was held in January, 2018.

Over at WIFCON, senior folks are bandying about ideas for how to speed up FAR Part 15 source selections. You should note right away that this is a focused discussion, not a general “boil the ocean” discussion. FAR Part 15 source selection. It’s a known thing and, if it can be streamlined, everybody would win. There are some good ideas in that discussion thread, but it’s easy to have ideas; implementation is the hard thing.

The point is, lots of effort is being made without much of a result. Even the best recommendations have a tendency to get lost in the DoD bureaucracy.

Meanwhile, Frank Kendall is telling people the problem is not as urgent as “myths” make it out to be. Over at DefenseOne, there is an article under Mr. Kendall’s byline entitled “Five Myths About Pentagon Weapons Programs,” in which he schools “service secretaries” and the rest of us about “sorting fact from fiction” with respect to the defense acquisition environment.

Myth 1: The defense acquisition system is broken

Myth 2: Excessive bureaucracy is the core problem with defense acquisition

Myth 3: Innovation is stifled by the acquisition system

Myth 4: Stronger “punishments” for cost overruns and schedule slips will lead to better performance

Myth 5: There is some new form of undiscovered “acquisition magic” that will fundamentally improve results

Now, we agree with some of those observations. We agree that punishments for program failure won’t keep other programs from failing. We agree that there is no “acquisition magic” that will fix the broken system.

But we don’t agree with the notion that the system isn’t broken, or that it can’t be improved through targeted evaluation and action. The WIFCON discussion thread referenced above is a good example of targeted reform. It’s not “acquisition magic,” but it is an effort at incremental acquisition improvement. Continuous incremental improvement is the right way to go, as Toyota has shown the world.

Further, we don’t agree that innovation isn’t stifled and we think we’ve proved that assertion with reference to the Palantir story. In addition, while excessive bureaucracy may not be the “core problem” it is certainly one of the problems with the acquisition system. When that bureaucracy is coupled to excessive power within the acquisition system, problems result. (Google Darlene Druyun for a classic example of what happens when an acquisition bureaucrat gains too much power.)

Finally, we must note the irony of Frank Kendall talking down acquisition reform. For years, Mr. Kendall was the poster child for wasted acquisition reform efforts, from the foolish “S2T2” industrial base mapping plan to the required IR&D technical interchanges to creation of mythical “awards” for DoD’s best-performing contractors. And then there was the series of "Better Buying Power" memos, which was a whole lot of sound and fury without signifying much if any lost-lasting change to the acquisition system. In 2011, Mr. Kendall told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, “the Department will replace intuitive judgments about the impacts of changing domestic demand, globalization, commercial-military integration, emerging sources of innovation, and other issues with data-driven industrial base evaluations. By continuously assessing the industrial base on a sector-by-sector, tier-by-tier basis, the Department will develop a reservoir of critical and actionable information.” Seven years later, it's widely acknowledged that the U.S. is rapidly losing its technological edge to its adversaries. The erosion took place under Frank Kendall’s watch, despite his promises to the Senate to prevent it.

In the past seven years—as we’ve documented on this blog—the “partnership” between the Pentagon and its contractors has deteriorated. Mr. Kendall publicly stated in 2012 that DoD was not in partnership with industry and that became the policy of the Obama Administration. As a result of Mr. Kendall’s policy, negotiations that used to take days or weeks are now measured in months. The pipeline of new DoD suppliers has dwindled and established non-defense suppliers now treat the Pentagon as a pariah—because of barriers to entry and onerous contract terms, among other reasons. The Pentagon is a bad customer and many of its traits were created (or endorsed) by Frank Kendall.

Thus, it seems ironic that Mr. Kendall would school us all on acquisition reform myths. Throughout his Pentagon tenure, he was the proponent of many acquisition-related myths. Some of the problems acquisition reformers are trying to solve were created under his watch. As for the rest of the problems, they certainly pre-date his tenure; but his efforts to address them were (at best) ineffectual. Some of his actions were, in fact, counterproductive. He created an acquisition culture that was so widely reviled that Congress eliminated his position within the DoD bureaucracy.

In conclusion, he is just about the last person on the planet who should be talking about acquisition reform.

 

Sanders Speaking at NCMA Orange County Chapter Annual Educational Symposium

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I was honored to be invited to speak again to the NCMA’s Orange County (California) Chapter. I will be speaking at the Annual Educational Symposium, an all-day event whose theme this year is “Contracting in the Age of Startups, Technology & Innovation.” The event takes place on April 26, 2018, and you can find out more about the Symposium here.

As might be guessed from the Symposium’s title, the focus this year is on “non-traditional” contractors, including start-ups and small businesses. I was asked to speak to the theme, so I picked the topic of “Barriers to Entry: What Keeps Companies from Selling to the DoD, and How to Overcome Them.” (My wife pointed out that my title is ambiguous: it’s not clear whether I’m telling folks how to overcome the barriers or how to overcome the other companies. Whatever. I think it works either way. And now you understand why we’ve been married for nearly 20 years.)

The traditional aerospace/defense market isn’t what it used to be in Southern California. There was a time when most A&D companies were headquartered here, and the industry headcount was measured in the hundreds of thousands. Over the past 50 years, corporate headquarters have moved closer to Washington, D.C. and the work has moved to places where the cost of living (and therefore wages) are generally lower. I think the last major programs where the majority of work was performed in SoCal were the B-2 “Spirit” bomber and the C-17 “Globemaster III” transport aircraft. The final B-2 was produced in Pico Rivera in 1997 and the final C-17 was produced in Long Beach in 2015. That’s not to say that there isn’t an aerospace/defense market left; companies like General Atomics, and SpaceX are located there, and other companies, including Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin still have sites there. But based on headcount if nothing else, the A&D market that’s left in SoCal is a hollow shell of the vibrant market that used to thrive there.

We can debate about why the work migrated out of state. Certainly, the State of California never appreciated its industrial base the way it appreciated the film and television industry, which was also led from SoCal. (Sorry New Yorkers, but it’s true.) While the state extended tax break after tax break to production companies, A&D companies largely were taken for granted. Of course, there are many other causes of the migration, but the state’s rather cavalier treatment of its A&D companies springs to mind first. In any case, the 21st Century SoCal A&D market is rich in heritage but poor in business opportunity.

Thus, the Orange County Chapter’s focus on start-ups, high-tech, and innovative small businesses makes a lot of sense. It is those types of companies that are the next generation of government contractors. Moreover, it is exactly those types of companies that the Federal government says it wants to attract. This blog has chronicled the government’s attempts to woo such companies, with results that have been, to date, mixed at best.

So come on down to Orange County, California, on April 26th and hear a full-day’s worth of presentations, and earn 7 CPE/MCLE credits. I think it will be worth the price of admission.

 

 

More Discussion on Threshold Changes

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Sorry for the continued ranting about rule-makers who do not timely follow Congressional direction, ranting that is focused (today) on the conflicts created between the 2018 NDAA (which raised certain acquisition thresholds, but only for the agencies covered by that public law, to be effective 18 June 2018), the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (which has not yet implemented the statutory changes, but has less than 90 days left to do so), and the Federal Acquisition Regulations (which if not changed timely will conflict with the statute and any DFARS rule-making that implements it).

We’ve already written three articles on this topic: here and also here and then again here. You might think we’d have said about everything there was to say on the topic. Yet over at WIFCON, the debate rages on.

Do Contracting Officers need to follow the statute or the regulation? If they follow the statute and not the regulation, do they need an official FAR deviation? What about the sentence at FAR 1.602-1(b), which states “No contract shall be entered into unless the contracting officer ensures that all requirements of law, executive orders, regulations, and all other applicable procedures, including clearances and approvals, have been met.” How can a Contracting Officer comply with that requirement if a statute and its implementing regulation are in conflict?

The job of the two FAR Councils and the FAR Secretariat is to make sure those conflicts are few and far between. How are they doing?

Well, as we reported in one of those prior articles (links above), the Civilian Agency Acquisition Council issued a Class Deviation, permitting all civilian agencies to implement their own Agency-level Class Deviation to implement, in advance of formal rule-making, the statutory changes to micro-purchase and simplified acquisition thresholds directed by the 2018 NDAA. That’s a clear signal that those two changes are going to be implemented FAR-wide, eliminating any potential conflict between FAR thresholds and DFARS thresholds.

The Department of Energy took that CAAC Class Deviation and ran with it. On March 16, 2018, the DOE issued its Class Deviation, implementing those NDAA acquisition threshold changes. That’s a fairly significant step forward.

But of course, the elephant in the room is the 2018 NDAA change to the threshold for obtaining certified cost or pricing data, which is also the contract-level CAS coverage threshold. Is it going to stay at $750,000 in the regulations and contract clauses, or is it going to increase to $2 million as the statute will read, effective 18 June 2018? That’s the burning question that needs to be answered, and answered quickly.

Some changes, it seems, are more favored than others.

 

 


Page 53 of 278

Newsflash

Effective January 1, 2019, Nick Sanders has been named as Editor of two reference books published by LexisNexis. The first book is Matthew Bender’s Accounting for Government Contracts: The Federal Acquisition Regulation. The second book is Matthew Bender’s Accounting for Government Contracts: The Cost Accounting Standards. Nick replaces Darrell Oyer, who has edited those books for many years.