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Apogee Consulting Inc

How Much Will the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost?

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F-35We have previously expressed some concern about the F-35 program’s plan to ramp-up production to a record-setting level of one plane per working day, producing 3 different variants on one single production line. We have reported, several times, the determination of the Pentagon and Congress to penalize programs that don’t deliver on cost and schedule commitments. Now comes word of a Pentagon Joint Estimate Team (JET) report that indicates the program “will require billions of dollars more than planned, and more time.”  According to InsideDefense.com, the JET found that the program’s performance “is not markedly improving.”  The InsideDefense.com story stated that “A new assessment of the Joint Strike Fighter program affirms earlier findings that substantially more money and time are required for the Pentagon's largest acquisition effort….”  The story reported that the JET report found the program would need at least two more years and nearly $15 billion more than the current estimate.

 

According to various online sources and the Pentagon, the program’s Estimate-at-Completion (EAC) is impacted by the assumptions used to develop it—with the JET report utilizing “pessimistic” assumptions that emphasize current production efficiencies and program spend rates, while the F-35 Program Office utilizes more optimistic assumptions that include future production efficiencies.  According to this story, Air Force Major General C.D. Moore (F-35 Deputy Program Manager) acknowledged that the program is currently “three to five months behind the master schedule,” but asserted that “we are seeing improved production line efficiencies.”

 

We should note that the JET report has not been officially released, so it is difficult to parse the facts.  According to this report, the JET EAC showed a $7 billion increase, not $15 billion.”  Regardless, DOD spokesperson Geoff Morrell was quoted as acknowledging that the JET EAC “continues to raise concerns about the course the program is on. … If the Joint Estimate Team provided especially good news, we would be trumpeting it.”

 

Unsurprisingly, the Lockheed Martin-led program team disagreed with the JET analysis.  They released the following statement:

 

Lockheed Martin and our industry partners recognize the Joint Estimate Team's earnest efforts to predict F-35 program costs and schedules as part of the annual DoD budget planning process. However, we disagree with their conclusions, which we believe are driven by legacy-based assumptions regarding the time required to deliver the remaining SDD aircraft, complete development, and conduct the flight test campaign.  The program is early in the flight test phase, so it is much too soon conclude that the expected payoffs will not be realized. Lockheed Martin acknowledges that modest risks to our cost and schedule baselines exist, but we envision no scenario that would justify a substantial delay to completion of development or transition to production milestones.

 

Speaking of pessimistic, the folks over at the Center for Defense Information (CDI) have posted what may the mother of all pessimistic articles, called “Combat Aviation’s Gloomy Future.”  That post refers to a story on the F-35 STOVLinfamous Huffington Post website called “What Now, Icarus? Is Western Combat Aviation Falling Out of the Sky?”  In the story, the authors make some alarming assertions, including this doozy:  “The F-35 is unaffordable. It is a technological kluge that will be less effective than airplanes it replaces. And it will increase our own combat losses.”

 

Addressing the JET report’s findings, the authors assert—

 

Those findings address only the known problems; there's a huge iceberg floating just under the surface. With F-35 flight testing barely three percent complete, new problems - and new costs - are sure to emerge. Worse, only 17 percent of the aircraft's characteristics will be validated by flight testing by the time the Pentagon has signed contracts for more than 500 aircraft. Operational squadron pilots will have the thrill of discovering the remaining problems, in training or in combat. No one should be surprised if the final F-35 total program unit cost reaches $200 million per aircraft after all the fixes are paid for.

 

Finally comes a teaser from DefenseInsider.com (the bunch that broke the original JET EAC story), reporting that “A senior Pentagon official with access to details of a closely held new cost assessment of the Joint Strike Fighter program is advising Defense Department colleagues that the F-35 development program ‘will likely breach’ a key congressionally mandated cost threshold, a step that could require dramatic remedial action for the U.S. military's costliest weapon program.” The article is referring to a Nunn-McCurdy breach.

 

A Nunn-McCurdy breach occurs when a program’s acquisition unit cost overrun exceeds 15% (i.e., 115% of the baseline budget).  When that happens, statute requires that the Secretary of Defense must notify Congress.  According to the legislation, should an acquisition unit cost overrun exceed 25%, the program must be terminated, unless the Secretary of Defense provides Congress with a detailed justification as to why the program is critical to national security.  A Nunn-McCurdy breach is not in any sense good news, and tends to have career-limiting impacts to those involved in programs that incur them.  Moreover, as we noted, Congress and the Obama Administration have taken dim views of programs that exhibit cost growth and/or schedule delays.

 

Should the F-35 incur a Nunn-McCurdy breach, the timing of the reporting will be quite interesting.  Had the breach been reported in the first half of 2009, it would have been more difficult to assert that the program was critical to national security, because there would have been the competing F-22 program.  Now that additional production of the F-22 program has been stopped, there is no competition to the F-35 program and it is obvious the program will need to continue, regardless of cost growth.  In the words of Pierre Sprey and Winslow Wheeler, the program may be deemed “too big to fail.”

 

This is a critical juncture for the large international aircraft program, and time will tell who has the best at-completion estimate, the Pentagon JET evaluators or the program team.



 

SBA Proposes Revisions to 8(a) and SDB Contracting Programs

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SBA LogoOn October 29, 2009 the Small Business Administration (SBA) issued a proposed rule to significantly revise the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), affecting 8(a) and Small Disadvantaged Business (SDB) programs, as well as changing Small Business size standards.  The proposed rule, if finalized as written, will have significant impacts to a number of small and small disadvantaged businesses.

 

The proposed revisions are numerous and complex; the Federal Register publication, found here, takes up 29 pages of densely packed information.  There are six proposed changes to SBA’s size regulations, two dealing with mentor/protégé situations, one amending the requirements for joint ventures, one clarifying how a procurement should be classified, one further explaining the nonmanufacturer rule, and one relating to who may request a formal size determination. The remaining proposed changes are to the regulations governing SBA’s 8(a) BD and SDB programs.  Following are some highlights of the proposed rule:

 

  • Clarifies that protégé firms may only be considered to be not affiliated with their mentors (based on assistance received from the mentor firms) when they are made via an SBA approved 8(a) BD mentor/protégé agreement, or similar mentor/protégé program under another Federal agency that contains the exception in their authorizing statute (e.g., the Defense Department). Clarifies that only the SBA may exempt firms from the affiliation rules.
  • Clarifies that firms in a joint venture may be found to be generally affiliated if they pursue and/or receive contract awards in excess of the specific rule limitations.
  • Clarifies that while a joint venture may or may not be a separate legal entity, it must exist through a written document. Clarifies that a joint venture may or may not be populated (i.e., have its own separate employees). Whether a joint venture needs to be populated or have separate employees depends upon the legal structure of the joint venture. If a joint venture is a separate legal entity, then it must have its own employees. If a joint venture merely exists through a written agreement between two or more individual business entities, then it need not have its own separate employees and employees of each of the individual business entities may perform work for the joint venture.
  • Clarifies that any joint venture seeking to use the 8(a) mentor/protégé status as a basis for an exception to the affiliation requirements must follow the requirements of the 8(a) program—i.e., structure the joint venture agreement in accordance with 13 C.F.R. § 124.513 and submit the joint venture agreement for prior SBA approval.
  • Clarifies the “nonmanufacturer rule” to require that a firm that is not itself the manufacturer of the end item being procured must provide the product of a small business manufacturer only where a procuring agency has classified a procurement as a manufacturing procurement by assigning it a North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code under Sectors 31 to 33—and clarifies that procurements not classified as manufacturing procurements are not subject to the nonmanufacturer rule.
  • Amends the current rule to specify that an 8(a) firm does not graduate from the program merely by completing its nine-year term, but instead will be considered to graduate only upon completion of the entity’s business plan goals, thus demonstrating its ability to compete in the marketplace without 8(a) assistance.
  • Amends the current rule defining economic disadvantage to (among other things) exempt income from an S Corporation from the calculation of both income and net worth to the extent such income is reinvested in the firm or used to pay taxes arising from the normal course of operations of an S corporation. Therefore, while the income of an S corporation flows through and is taxed to individual shareholders in accordance with their interest in the S corporation for Federal tax purposes, SBA will take such income into account for economic disadvantage purposes only if it is actually distributed to the particular shareholder. This change would result in equal treatment of corporate income for C and S corporations.
  • Revises the current rule to state that non-8(a) joint venture partners to 8(a) sole source contracts cannot also be subcontractors under the joint venture prime contract. If a non-8(a) joint venture partner seeks to perform more work under the contract, then the amount of work done by the 8(a) partner to the joint venture must also increase.
  • Amends the current rule to establish an absolute limit of three protégés per mentor.

 

The proposed revisions are discussed at GovExec.com in this article.  The article takes a generally positive tone, approving of the proposed changes as closing regulatory loopholes that allow “multibillion-dollar corporations to partner with Alaska native corporations -- which are considered permanent small disadvantaged businesses -- on contracts in which the larger firm does virtually all of the work.”


 

 

Senator Reed Sees “Painful” Weapon Cuts Ahead

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Defense SpendingOn October 28, 2009 Senator Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island) told a group of reporters that increased Afghanistan troop levels will have unavoidable impacts on ongoing weapons program as well as weapons modernization programs.  According to this article on defensenews.com, the member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and Chair of the Subcommittee on Seapower and veteran of the U.S. Amy predicted that the combination of increased combat operations in Afghanistan, coupled with a flat defense budget, will inevitably lead to reduced spending on weapons programs.  The article quotes Senator Reed as saying, “It is going to be a difficult time.”

 

Moreover, Senator Reed stated that “Higher levels of defense spending, which would allow for both higher troop levels and weapons modernization, will take a backseat to more pressing national economic problems, he said, with creating jobs as the first priority.  After that, the next priority will be paying for the expensive economic stimulus measures that have been and will be enacted.”

 

Importantly, Senator Reed explained that poor performing programs will be targeted for termination.  The article reports that he “expects that funding will continue to be scarce for marginal weapons that suffer cost overruns or other problems. And weapons programs that continue likely will be scaled down and purchased in smaller numbers.”  The article quotes Senator Reed as describing these effects as "painful adjustments."

 

As we have previously posted the Obama Administration and Congress have made it abundantly clear that program execution is of paramount importance.  As we noted, several big-ticket (but poorly performing) programs were terminated in the upcoming FY 2010 National Defense Authorization Act.  Contractors who want to win their share of the scarce defense dollars must control costs and deliver on schedule; those that do not will pay a steep price for their execution missteps.

 

OMB Issues Guidance to Help Federal Agencies Increase Use of Competition and Decrease Use of Flexibly Priced Contract Types

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On October 27, 2009 the OMB issued new guidance to Federal agencies designed to help them implement a previously issued directive to “reduce by at least 10 percent the combined share of dollars obligated through new contracts in FY 2010 that are: (1) awarded non-competitively and/or receive only one bid in response to a solicitation or a request for quote, (2) cost-reimbursement contracts, or (2) T&M/LH contracts.” The new guidance consists of “guidelines to help [agencies] evaluate the effectiveness of their competition practices and processes for selecting contract types.”  The guidelines consist of three questions and a set of considerations for addressing each question.

 

Generally, the guidelines and considerations are a combination of common sense and fundamental best practices.  For example, one consideration calls for agencies to “focus on requirements development and outreach to vendors” in order to maximize the effective use of competition.  In order to choose the best contract type for an acquisition, agencies are encouraged to “determine the level of uncertainty” and to “use incentives to motivate lower costs with improved delivery or technical performance and to discourage contractor inefficiency and waste.”

 

That said, other aspects of the guidance are worth noting.  For instance, contract risk can be limited in noncompetitive situations by limiting contract length and regularly assess contractor performance.  The guidance encourages use of “contract review boards, peer reviews, or contract type advocates” to help transition from flexibly priced contract types to “lower risk” contract types.

 

An interesting (and perhaps controversial) aspect of the guidance encourages agencies to use “hybrid contracts” in order to better match requirements and pricing.  Hybrid contracts contain Contract Line Item Numbers (CLINs) or Task Ordering procedures that permit different contract types to be used for different aspects of the work.  As the guidance notes, “Work for which there is a basis for firm pricing can be awarded for a firm-fixed price while requirements for which there remains considerable uncertainty can be acquired on a cost or T&M/LH basis.”  One potential problem with this approach is that the contract’s price is unknown at the time of award and, because the price is unknown it may be unclear whether the contract is subject to Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) or not.  In addition, the potential for multiple contract types increases uncertainty—i.e., risk—and makes it difficult for a contractor to price.

 

The guidance offers an alternative approach:  “an agency could competitively award a series of contracts addressing smaller increments or modules of work.” This alternative is not very appealing, given the cost and schedule impacts associated with the current contract award process.

 

In summary, we would file the guidance under “motherhood and apple pie” in the binder on the bookshelf.  There are some small nuggets of wisdom, and a few clunkers—but the majority of the “guidance” breaks no new ground.

 

See the new OMB guidance here.

 

Post Script:  GovExec.com reported in this story that the Senate on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (from whom we heard much on the DCAA audit quality issue) held a hearing on October 28, 2009 in which “lawmakers from both sides of the aisle expressed concerns about the Obama administration's new contracting guidance….”  The article reported that Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) had “serious concerns” and “significant problems” with the OMB guidance, among which were “a lack of concrete direction on how agencies should achieve necessary reforms to improve procurement” and a failure “to hold agencies accountable for reforms by setting concrete deadlines.”  The article quotes Senator McCaskill as saying that the guidance "lacks adequate analysis and substance in my view.  It really is boiler plate -- it's standard material, it reiterates a list of human capital planning guidelines, it creates various interagency working groups. I'm tired of studies, I'm tired of working groups, I want to see action and in my view this plan simply delegates to each agency what the law required OFPP to do itself."

 

Documents associated with the Senate hearing are linked.  Senator McCaskill’s opening statement can be found at the hearing site, or here.

 

 

DOD Announces that DCAA Director April Stephenson is Moving On

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movingOn October 26, 2009 DCAA Director April Stephenson transmitted an email from Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) Mr. Robert Hale to all DCAA employees, announcing that she was leaving the agency she had helmed for 21 months, in order to accept “reassignment to an SES [Senior Executive Service] position” on Mr. Hale’s staff, effective November 8, 2009.  Replacing Ms. Stephenson will be Mr. Pat Fitzgerald, currently the Auditor General of the U.S. Army.  In making the announcement, Mr. Hale wrote:

DCAA remains a critical part of the acquisition process. The strong and capable staff at DCAA, coupled with hard work from all of you, helps DoDacquire the best goods and services for our warfighters at reasonable prices. We must carefully address the concerns raised about DCAA in recent reports issued by the GAO and the DoDIG. I want to work with Mr. Fitzgerald and the Agency's employees to address those concerns in ways thatstrengthen the organization and permit it to continue performing its important role.

 

In her transmittal, Ms. Stephenson wrote:

 

I would like to take this opportunity to thank the employees of DCAA for
their tireless efforts in auditing contractor costs. … Without the efforts of all DCAA employees, billions of dollars of contractor overpayments and unallowable costs would go undetected.  FY 2009 was a challenging year with the implementation of many improvements across the Agency. I appreciate the dedication and can-do attitude of the DCAA workforce. The many employee suggestions received throughout the year were essential in developing new initiatives and refining prior processes. Although I will be moving on to new challenges, the employees of DCAA will always be in my heart.

The move was not entirely unexpected.  Followers of this site are aware of the intense barrage of criticism Ms. Stephenson and the DCAA have received over the past 15 months.  Candidly, much of the criticism was misdirected, and in any case focused on issues that occurred literally years before Ms. Stephenson took over as Director, replacing Bill Reed, who had led the agency for more than 20 years.  While there is certainly much to criticize regarding DCAA audit quality, surprisingly little attention was paid to the audit process that leads, time after time, to protracted disputes between the Defense Department and its contractors.  We offered some suggestions as “lessons learned” here.

 

FederalTimes.com reported that Navy Commander Darryn James, DOD spokesperson, stated that the change is being made “because DoD leaders feel he [Fitzgerald] is the best-qualified person to continue making improvements at DCAA. This reassignment is intended to bring in a new leader at DCAA, with a fresh perspective and ideas.”

 

According to the FederalTimes.com article, Senator Joe Lieberman issued a statement in which he said: “I hope that the DoD comptroller as well as the incoming DCAA director will continue to bring outside auditing expertise into the agency, strengthen quality control, improve training at all levels of DCAA, and prioritize audits based on the risk of contractor over-billings as well as waste, fraud and abuse.”

 

So who is Mr. Patrick Fitzgerald?  Currently, he leads the U.S. Army Audit Agency, established in 1946 to perform “auditing services on an Army-wide basis within the zone of the interior, including the civil appropriations of the War Department.”  In 1947, “War Department General Order Number 83 stipulated that the Army Audit Agency was responsible for both the operational performance and technical supervision of audits within the zone of the interior. General Order No. 83 further stated that the Army Audit Agency was charged with the technical supervision of audit operations in oversea commands.”  Currently, the Army Audit Agency’s staff of 600 “is organized into 17 functional audit teams and 6 smaller divisions” and includes 23 field offices, 3 overseas offices, and an operations center in Alexandria, Virginia.  In a nutshell, the USAAA is the Army’s internal audit team.

 

Mr. Fitzgerald will face some immediate challenges, not the least of which is ramping up from managing a staff of 600 to managing a growing staff of 4,200.  There is also the issue of managing the expectations of multiple customers.  Instead of focusing solely on meeting the needs of the Army, DCAA has to meet the needs of a diverse set of stakeholders, including those from all military services as well as several from outside the Defense Department.  Nonetheless, Mr. Fitzgerald has a running start, as he has been leading the DCAA Oversight Committee tasked with overseeing DCAA remedial management actions taken in response to the scathing July 2008 GAO report that first brought the audit agency’s shortcomings to the public’s eye. As Mr. Hale testified before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, “The committee is made up of the Auditors General of the Army, Navy, and Air Force; the Director of Defense Procurement and Acquisition Policy (DPAP); and the DoD Deputy General Counsel for Acquisition and Technology. This senior group will assess DCAA’s activities and the actions taken to correct problems identified by GAO and others.”

The Project on Government Oversight (POGO) opined that removing Ms. Stephenson “won’t fix the Agency’s problems.”  POGO quickly released the following statement:

 

Contractors have been on a rampage fighting new requirements being placed upon them by DCAA for the past year. Removing the Director of DCAA does not address congressional and taxpayer concerns that this agency lacks the independence and clout necessary to serve taxpayer interests. It would be unfortunate and ironic if congressional inquiries into the independence and strength of DCAA ultimately serves to strengthen the hand of contractors.

 

An article on GovExec.com quoted POGO’s Executive Director as saying, “"I think this is a mistake.  I don't think April was the problem.  Removing the director of DCAA does not address congressional and taxpayer concerns that this agency lacks the independence and clout necessary to serve taxpayer interests.  It would be unfortunate and ironic if congressional inquiries into the independence and strength of DCAA ultimately serves to strengthen the hand of contractors.”

 

In our view, Ms. Stephenson inherited an intractable set of problems from her predecessor, not the least of which was a dysfunctional management culture and a “check the box” audit mentality that penalized auditors for thoroughness at the same time it failed to penalize them for obvious quality problems.  She had the helm of the ship for 21 months, however; and at some point it became her watch and her problem to solve.  It became her management team and it became about her ability to empower the staff to excellence.  But rather than making the fundamental changes necessary to address the root causes of the audit agency’s problems, she chose to focus instead on attacking DCMA contracting officers and DOD contractors, blaming them for many of the problems she faced.  The audit guidance issued under her leadership was tainted with an air of draconian arbitrariness—to the point that even the audit supervisors in the field were uncomfortable implementing it.  While Mr. Fitzgerald faces many of the same issues Ms. Stephenson faced, as an outsider he is beholden to nobody in the current management team and thus has the ability to make wholesale changes, if he wishes to do so.  Moreover, one would suppose he has the backing of Under Secretary Hale—and perhaps Defense Procurement and Acquisition Policy Director Shay Assad—so he should have the clout to implement the necessary changes that will return DCAA to its former position as the preeminent Government audit agency.


 

 


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Newsflash

Effective January 1, 2019, Nick Sanders has been named as Editor of two reference books published by LexisNexis. The first book is Matthew Bender’s Accounting for Government Contracts: The Federal Acquisition Regulation. The second book is Matthew Bender’s Accounting for Government Contracts: The Cost Accounting Standards. Nick replaces Darrell Oyer, who has edited those books for many years.