DOD recently issued to the public its latest quarterly status report on conditions in Iraq.  The report, mandated by Public Law, provides an in-depth look into the present and future of the war-torn region.  The latest report (current through 30 August 2009) discusses implementation of the Security Agreement (SA) and Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA), and notes that Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are now responsible for providing urban security, with the US forces acting in an advisory role.  Multi-national forces (e.g., UK, Australia, Romania) have largely departed the theater and the drawdown of US forces has begun; the report envisions a complete withdrawal of US forces by 31 December 2011.  (We reported on allegations that support contractors are not reducing their staffs in a commensurate manner to the troop drawdowns here.)

The report states that the upcoming January 2010 elections will be “a pivotal event” for the Government of Iraq (GoI); the election includes a national referendum on the SA that, if voted down, could “force an earlier than anticipated redeployment of U.S. forces.”

Territorial issues between Kurds and Arabs continue to breed internal tensions. In addition, the report states “targeted operations against insurgent and extremist groups continue to disrupt their activities, but gains in the security environment are not yet enduring.” Shi’a and Sunni nationalist groups are slowly integrating into the Government, but much work remains to be done.  The report includes the statement that—

Malign Iranian influence continues to pose a significant challenge to Iraq’s long-term stability and political independence. The GoI, through reciprocal visits with Iran at the Head-of-State and Foreign Minister levels, has sent strong messages warning Iran against its continued support to Shi’a militants, while still encouraging improved bilateral relations, economic cooperation, and cultural and religious exchanges.

Significantly, the Iraq military and civilian budgets and overall fiscal situation have been impacted by low oil prices and the diversion of export oil to its own infrastructure.

The report (which can be found here) concludes as follows—

… political, security, economic, diplomatic, and rule of law trends in Iraq remain generally positive, but significant challenges remain.  … In spite of the continued progress, these gains remain uneven throughout the country and marred by infrequent but high-profile attacks.  Additional progress is required to produce sustainable stability. Iraq remains fragile, primarily because many underlying sources of instability have yet to be resolved, putting security gains at risk.  To ensure long-term stability, the GoI must continue to build its legitimacy through the provision of basic services and improved security for the Iraqi people, as well as the continued resolution of lingering political, ethnic, and sectarian disputes.