On October 22, 2009 the “Augustine Commission” (aka The Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee) released its final report entitled, “Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation.” We have previously reported on the Commission’s interim discussions and findings, here and here. Capping a nine month effort by a prestigious group of 10 members, the report painted a bleak picture. The Commission concluded—

The U.S. human spaceflight program appears to be on an unsustainable trajectory.  It is perpetuating the perilous practice of pursuing goals that do not match allocated resources.  Space operations are among the most demanding and unforgiving pursuits ever undertaken by humans. … Space operations become all the more difficult when means do not match aspirations.  Such is the case today.

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Once the Shuttle is retired, there will be a gap in the capability of the United States itself to launch humans into space.  That gap will extend until the next U.S. human-rated launch system becomes available.  The Committee estimates that, under the current plan, this gap will be at least seven years.  There has not been this long a gap in U.S. human launch capability since the U.S. human space program began. … The Committee did not identify any credible approach employing new capabilities that could shorten the gap to less than six years.  The only way to significantly close the gap is to extend the life of the Shuttle Program.  The Committee did not identify any credible approach employing new capabilities that could shorten the gap to less than six years.  The only way to significantly close the gap is to extend the life of the Shuttle Program.

One of the key findings of the report was that NASA’s funding is insufficient to accomplish its mission.  The table below illustrates that NASA”s budget, as a percentage of Federal spending, has declined from a high of 4.5% (in 1965) to approximately 0.5% today.

As the Commission stated, “Within the current structure of the budget, NASA essentially has the resources either to build a major new system or to operate one, but not to do both. This is the root cause of the gap in capability of launching crew to low-Earth orbit under the current budget and will likely be the source of other gaps in the future.”

Another key aspect of the report was that the path to Mars goes through the Moon.  In other words, the Commission endorsed a “moon-first” strategy, followed by what it called the “flexible path” to Mars strategy, which is illustrated below.

Another view of the “flexible path” strategy is illustrated below.

The Commission concluded:  “Mars is the ultimate destination for human exploration of the inner solar system; but it is not the best first destination.  Both visiting the Moon First and following the Flexible Path are viable exploration strategies.  The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive; before traveling to Mars, we might be well served to both extend our presence in free space and gain experience working on the lunar surface.”

The Augustine Commission reported the following conclusions:

• Human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit is not viable under the FY 2010 budget guideline.
• Meaningful human exploration is possible under a less-constrained budget, ramping up to approximately $3 billion per year in real purchasing power above the FY 2010 guidance in total resources.
• Funding at the increased level would allow either an exploration program to explore the Moon First or one that follows a Flexible Path of exploration. Either could produce results in a reasonable timeframe.

See the entire, impressive, report here.

We can only hope that the Obama Administration considers the report, and its findings and recommendations, with the same care that was put into it.